So predictable - unlike the Donside by-election

Is it any surprise that there is growing support for the idea that we should leave the EU when the European Council, backed by the European Parliament, has just agreed the European Commission's request for an extra £6.2bn to be added to the budget, in spite of Cameron talking tough a few weeks ago. Calton doesn't like to say "I told you so" but ... it was entirely predictable that this would happen, and it completely knocks the legs out from under the Prime Minister's idea that he can renegotiate our position within the EU. We just don't have that much clout. However, it is good to see that one of the three main parties (four in Scotland) is now willing to give the British people a say regarding our continued membership of the EU. Labour and the Libdems are going to look increasingly out of touch with the electorate if they continue to refuse to back an in-out referendum on the EU, especially if, as seems likely, UKIP continue to make gains in elections. The Aberdeen Donside by-election will be an interesting indicator of UKIP's support in Scotland, with the announcement of Otto Inglis as their candidate. (Inglis previously contested Dunfermline and West Fife in the last Westminster election.) Calton awaits the outcome, which is anything but predictable, with interest. (And perhaps, given UKIP's recent share of the vote down south, he should be talking of four main parties, five in Scotland?)

Shake 'em up, Nigel

If taxes are not going to rise to pay for the SNP's welfare proposals, where's the money going to come from? Oil? And when the black gold runs out? Borrow like there's no tomorrow? (Oops - wrong party. Calton is getting confused with Gordon Brown. Mind you, apart from the unionist/nationalist thing there's not much to choose between the SNP and Labour since both are socialist, Europhile, big spenders.) Calton isn't sure that either campaign did themselves any favours today - while Sturgeon dug herself into an ever-deeper hole with her 'natural majority' and 'no rise in taxes', the Great Broon's reappearance on the political stage is hardly an encouragement to vote No if it means going back to the spend, spend, spend of the Labour years. It would be Hobson's choice for Scots, saddled with high spending and the EU whichever way they vote, if today's speakers were the whole story. Fortunately, there has been a sea-change down in England over the EU which might just cause some ripples up here, giving the voters more choice. Anything that shakes up the current stale old slagging match between Labour and the SNP has to be a good thing, in Calton's book.

Jam tomorrow - naturally

Recent polls have shown a drop in support for the Yes campaign so what does Nicola Sturgeon do? Invents a new phrase - "natural majority". She defines this as the number of people who will vote for independence if the SNP can persuade them that it opens the door to a wealthier and fairer country. Now, leaving aside the fact that the results of SNP's own poll show that 43% of those polled would still vote No even if persuaded that an independent Scotland would be wealthier and fairer, the little 'if' in Sturgeon's definiton of 'natural' is a big one. A very big one. Not one that will go away just by making assertions. If the Yes Campaign are to have any chance of winning a majority, natural or otherwise, they need to prove some hard facts, like exactly how much oil we are going to have and what it is going to be worth. They need to tell us how we are going to be a fairer country and what exactly that will mean in terms of taxes. Better childcare provision and better care for the elderly costs money. We need to know where that money will come from in an independent Scotland. It's all very well the SNP promising jam tomorrow if we vote Yes but it is now becoming obvious that the council tax freeze introduced by the Scottish Government is resulting in visible cutbacks in services and, in the NHS, waiting times in A&E have increased dramatically. The SNP's attempts to buy votes are starting to unravel so why should we believe them when they say that an independent Scotland will be wealthier and fairer? Hopefully the majority of Scots will be canny enough to realise that you don't get something for nothing.

No sympathy for old men

Unlike Barbara Hewson, Calton has no sympathy at all for old men whose "misdemeanors" are finally catching up with them. Why should they get let off the hook just because it happened a long time ago? If there's one thing we have learned from the sorry saga of child abuse, both personal and institutional, that has filled our news in the last few years, is that it often takes years to come to light. Imposing a statute of limitations on this type of crime would be extremely unjust. We also need to remember that there is often a progression of abuse, starting with milder forms of inappropriate behaviour, which paedophiles use to gauge whether or not the victim is likely to complain if the abuse intensifies, and so even what Hewson classes as "low-level misdemeanors" need to be taken seriously. The type of behaviour which Hewson categorises as low-level could still be traumatic for a vulnerable young person. As for lowering the age of consent to 13, Calton is glad to see that this has been almost universally, and quite rightly, criticised.

Tories trump Salmond on crime

Calton is getting fair scunnered with the way Alex Salmond keeps blaming other parties instead of answering the question and taking positive action at FMQs. Today he was blaming the Conservative Government of 1993. Who cares who did what twenty years ago? What we want, and what Ruth Davidson was asking for, is action to stop dangerous criminals being released from prison. Politicians may, rightly, not be able to influence parole board decisions but they can, and should, introduce whole life tariffs in Scotland and end automatic early release which makes a mockery of serious crime sentencing. Calton has commented on this issue not long ago - it would be good if the Scottish Government took the concerns of himself and others seriously instead of using the situation to try and score points off the Conservative leader at FMQs. Safe streets are important and so it was the Tories who came up trumps in today's FMQs. They are also doing a good job highlighting the fact that a third of people prosecuted for domestic abuse are let off with a warning. So much for zero tolerance. It's time the SNP got tough on crime.

Endangered species of the political kind

At time of writing, the Times vote on whether we should be in or out of the EU was 56% OUT to 44% IN. Calton voted OUT. That should come as no surprise to his regular readers. If we left the EU our farmers would at least be able to bury their dead sheep instead of paying the knacker to take them away. We would be able to manage our own fish stocks. We wouldn't be forced into an unaffordable energy policy by EU directives. We would be our own boss again. Unfortunately Alex Salmond is so wedded to the European ideal that even UKIP's tremendous gains in last week's English elections fail to warn him of his impending doom if he carries on down the EU path. For far too long our political elite have not been listening to voters and have not given them a choice on Europe (or gay marriage). It's therefore no surprise that UKIP are cleaning up - no the EU, no to gay marriage, no to windfarms. What's not to like? (Unless you are a Libdem, in which case you are an endangered species.) If the SNP don't start listening to the electorate, they too will be on the endangered list.

Paying through the nose every time the wind blows

Our energy policy is a mess. New rules by Ofgem have forced all domestic energy suppliers to apply a standing charge for electricity and gas, in addition to the cost per unit used. It doesn't take a maths degree to realise that this penalises low users, the very sort of behaviour we should be encouraging. What's the point of insulating your house to cut your bills when you get hammered by a big standing charge regardless of your usage? The poor consumer is now also paying for wind turbines to be switched off when it gets too windy and the grid is at risk of being overloaded. This is absolute nonsense. Thousands of people are now living in fuel poverty and what do our governments do? Increase our bills! If the SNP succeed in covering Scotland with windfarms, how much money will have to be paid out every time a gale blows? Why is Ofgem not forcing suppliers to do away with standing charges altogether and just charge a flat rate per unit? That would encourage people to turn off the lights and turn down the thermostat. Ultimately, we need to reduce our energy usage, not keep building expensive, inefficient windfarms which only profit energy companies and landowners.

Sowing the wind and reaping the whirlwind

Calton has just managed to catch up with Susan Calman's comments on Radio 4's News Quiz which provoked such a storm of cyber-bullying that she seems to have disappeared off twitter. They were hilarious - it was one of the best episodes of the NQ Calton has ever heard. OK, so she was poking fun at oor Eck but Calton is sure the big man can handle it. Not so his cybernats, who seem to be totally devoid of a sense of humour. For this, Alex Salmond and his party need to take some responsibility. They have deliberately played the patriotic, emotional card in the independence debate, in place of reasoned argument and facts, so they should not be surprised when the argument ends up in the gutter. Their approach encourages personal abuse in place of rational debate - they have sown the wind and are now reaping the whirlwind. What really worries Calton is that, now the SNP have let the nationalist genie out of the bottle, what is going to happen if the majority vote no in 2014? Are the cybernats going to go away or will their virtual threats become real ones in an attempt to force independence? In that case, the Athens of the North may well become the Beirut of the North. Calton is already looking for a new eyrie.....

When never becomes now

Calton is old enough to remember when building societies stopped insisting on seeing proof of an endowment policy or similar repayment vehicle when giving out interest only mortgages. He also remembers clearly seeing warnings that some sort of plan to repay the capital was necessary when taking out such a loan and was the responsibility of the borrower. Letters with traffic light colour codes warning people about the likelihood of their endowment meeting its target have been dropping through letterboxes for at least 10 years now. So Calton has little sympathy with those who 'suddenly' find themselves in the position where they aren't going to be able to repay their mortgage when it matures. Yes, some endowment policies were mis-sold, but we've been through all that and those affected have been able to claim compensation for some years now. Interest only mortgages were not, in the main, mis-sold - borrowers were just overly keen to keep their monthly payments low and over-optimistic about house price rises. The concern is that, now that it's all going pear-shaped and people are faced with a debt they can't pay, they expect someone else to foot the bill, probably the mortgage providers. This, in turn, would penalise sensible borrowers who took out repayment mortgages they could afford. A large section of the population has been living the dream on the never-never and one day soon never is going to become now. They are the ones who should feel the pain, not those who didn't buy into the fantasy of free money in the first place.

Would you trust this man with your pension?

Calton cannot see how the First Minister can pledge that there will be no change to the amount of time pension firms are allowed to get their schemes out of deficit in the event of Scottish independence given that he also seems to rule out opting out of EU pension scheme arrangements, due to his continued love-affair with Europe. It was therefore no surprise to find that no details were given on how Salmond intends to protect Scots' company pensions post-independence. Clueless just about sums up the First Minister's attitude and Ruth Davidson is right to highlight the enormous gamble the SNP are taking with the future wellbeing of the people of Scotland. Unfortunately, instead of answering the question and giving us, the electorate, some concrete information on pensions, Alex chose instead to slag off the Tory-led coalition government down south. It's such an obvious tactic it's embarrassing. The upshot is that anyone with a UK-wide company pension would be well advised to vote no next year if they want to hold on to it.