More on Tactical Voting

Both votes SNP worked for them in 2011 but that doesn't mean the same strategy will work for the Scottish Conservatives in 2021, especially if, as is being reported today, they don't seem to be aiming to be the largest party in Holyrood - just the largest opposition party. Nothing like a bit of ambition eh guys?

On the other hand, voting for a smaller party on the list has not worked well since 2007 reduced the number of colours present in the Holyrood rainbow from 7 to 5. That doesn't mean it won't work now. Never has Calton seen such disenchantment and disillusionment with the ruling party that he is seeing right now. Even staunch, lifelong SNP supporters are talking about spoiling their constituency ballot and voting for one of the smaller independence parties on the list ballot. In addition, there has never been such a strong move towards tactical voting in order to oust an incumbent party in the lifetime of Holyrood as there is now. It is for those reasons that Calton thinks that Stephen Daisley (someone he has enormous respect for) is wrong when he says that a vote for All for Unity is a wasted vote.

George Galloway and All for Unity have galvanised the anti-SNP vote and The Majority has given them a voice (and a banner in the sky). The mood amongst unionists was changing even before the SNP started stumbling over the Fabiani Farce, the Hate Crime Bill and the recent allegations of sleaze. Now we have an open goal in front of us, the goalie is too busy fighting fires on various fronts to defend it, it's an opportunity undreamed of even a few weeks ago! Tactical voting in Glasgow Southside could see Anas Sarwar defeat Nicola Sturgeon! Jackie Baillie's crowdfunder was over-subscribed within days of launching. If Murdo Fraser puts some effort into his constituency instead of relying on the list vote we might see the back of John Swinney!

The All for Unity approach to getting rid of the SNP is two-pronged - tactical voting in the constituency and All for Unity on the list. It is clear that the main parties are not prepared to play ball as regards the former (although, to be fair, Douglas Ross did make a tentative offer which was rebuffed by Anas Sarwar) however voters are doing it for themselves. This means more seats for Labour and the Tories, which then means that giving them your list vote is less effective. Hence the second prong of A4U's attack.

Calton doesn't know if fortune favours the brave but it does seem to favour those who recognise an opportunity when they see one and grab it with both hands. George Galloway and his pals are doing just that and Calton sees no reason to revise what he has already said about tactical voting. Just do it! You know it makes sense.

Decent Human Beings Need Not Apply

Just in case there are still people out there who think that, by voting SNP, they will not only get independence but a decent human being for their MSP, Calton would like to draw your attention to what's been going on within the SNP with regards to disability and candidate selection. Rev Stuart Campbell has covered it in great detail here and here, however for those who haven't been following the story, here it is in brief:

The SNP have decided to give the top spot on the list for the Holyrood election second ballot to disabled people in four out of the eight regions. Given that the party gained a large number of constituency seats at the last election, having the top list spot is hugely important because lots of constituency seats reduces the number of list seats which a party can have. (Just look at Mid Scotland and Fife region which currently has no SNP list MSP because they have got so many of the constituencies, whereas the Tories have four list MSPs in the region.) There is therefore going to be an almighty scramble amongst SNP wannabee MSPs to get top spot on the list. Any list. Even if they don't live in the region.

So here's where the disability thing comes in because, the SNP NEC in their wisdom have decided that no proof of disability is required, although they have apparently tried to define what constitutes a disability, and when the leader of the Independence for Scotland Party, who is blind, questioned the self-identifying of disability she was subjected to a tirade of abuse from SNP members. It's a shame that being a nice, kind human being isn't the requisite qualification for top spot in the SNP, although if it was, they might struggle to get any candidates at all. As it is, with only four top spots reserved for the disabled, and the other four reserved for BAME people, it's only a matter of time before someone with the colouring of Ross Greer self-identifies as black.

A Rainbow of Rosettes

Calton can remember the early years of the Scottish Parliament when the ballot paper for the second or list vote was as long as his arm. It was called the Rainbow Parliament due to the many party colours - including the Senior Citizen's Unity Party and the Socialist Party in addition to the current five parties. In 2007 we also had the Scottish Christian Party, the Smoking in Pubs Party, the Christian People's Alliance and Solidarity putting up list candidates. Happy days! Unfortunately that was the year that saw all the smaller parties wiped out and the first SNP government elected. It's been all downhill since then.

Until now. Now we have the iron discipline of the SNP breaking down, spawning new independence parties such as Action for Independence, Independence for Scotland and Scotland's Independence Referendum Party. We also, finally, have a credible pushback against the SNP led by George Galloway and the Alliance for Unity party. The Smoking in Pubs Party has expired in the face of the smoking ban and the SCUP seems to have retired however the Scottish Socialists are alive and kicking - back against Labour it seems, especially since the recent suspension of one J Corbyn.

The Scottish Christian Party still pops up from time to time at by-elections - most recently to split the religious vote with newcomer the Scottish Family Party in Ian Blackford's constituency in the 2019 general election. The latter doesn't have a position on independence so that might appeal to the few people in the country still sitting on the fence when it comes to Scotland in or out of the UK. Alternatively, if Richard Leonard gives in to pressure and changes his opposition to a second independence referendum, they could always vote Scottish Labour.

Whatever your political views, more choice on the second ballot paper has to be a good thing, unless you want a one-party state run by mini-dictator Nicola Sturgeon and her husband. Calton will be voting for Alliance for Unity to stop that eventuality.

On Tactical Voting

Calton is not generally in favour of tactical voting however he is preparing to make an exception for the Holyrood election next year. He has been helped to this decision by a couple of things.

Firstly, it is becoming increasingly clear that the SNP must be defeated at all costs. If they are not, Scotland will become a police state where only views acceptable to the SNP are allowed and we will also have the continued, divisive agitation for another independence referendum while education, the NHS and the economy are ignored.

Secondly, it is highly likely that the current SNP selection process will result in a bunch of woke candidates made in Nicola Sturgeon's image, in spite of the #dontvotewoke campaign being waged by one faction of the party. This makes it easier for Calton to vote for a woke unionist candidate, if they are the one best placed to defeat the SNP in his constituency. Normally he wouldn't touch woke with a bargepole however needs must.

Lastly, the idea of an anti-nationalist coalition is one whose time has come. The silent majority is silent no longer. George Galloway has stirred things up good and proper and Alliance for Unity will be getting Calton's list vote. The traditional unionist parties are so far showing no sign of entering into any election pacts, preferring to split the vote and let the SNP in as usual, however their voters are starting to think differently. If Alex Salmond or the care home scandal don't bring Sturgeon down, her hubris in expecting another term in office may well do the trick. If Labour, the Tories and the Libdems suffer some collateral damage in the process they have only themselves to blame.

No Votes for the One-Party State

Calton managed to stay up last night until after the exit polls, which he treated with some scepticism. He went to bed but woke up at 3.30am, by which time Robertson and Sheikh had already gone and Salmond was soon to follow. Calton's joy would have been complete if Wishart, Blackford and Cherry had joined them but it was still a good night - and there's always next time. Which may come sooner than we all expected due to the dire overall UK result (for Theresa May that is - and anyone who likes stability and is in favour of Brexit, like Calton). It was definitely Corbyn's night down south, just as it was Davidson's up north.

What is clear, to Calton, is that the British public do not like the idea of a one-party state. May's biggest mistake was to try and crush the opposition. That did not go down well in England just as Sturgeon's attempts to appropriate the Scottish voice to her party only did not play well in Scotland. It may also be that the British public, being a lot less liberal and PC than politicians and the media would like to think, just don't like bossy women running the show with nobody to oppose them. That is not a view Calton agrees with (he does not have a problem with strong women, as his twitter followers will know) but, sadly, it is out there.

Like it or not, coalition government is here to stay because that is what the public wants. What Ruth Davidson needs to do is learn from the mistakes of Sturgeon and May and not become proud. (And if you want to hear hubris personified, just listen to Sturgeon's speech at lunchtime today.) Strong government is good but so is strong opposition. Sturgeon's acknowledged mentor Alex Salmond successfully negotiated a minority government from 2007-2011. She has been unable to do likewise and has suffered as a result. Will she learn from this? Calton thinks it unlikely. Expect more SNP losses in future.

Right to buy - election bribe or panacea?

Calton is probably going to vote Conservative in the forthcoming election, however, he totally disagrees with the Tory policy of extending the right to buy to housing association tenants in England and Wales and is therefore appreciating the benefits of devolution which allow Scotland to take a more sensible approach in this particular matter. What is it with Tories and home ownership? It really isn't the panacea for all ills and this latest piece of electioneering is going to give housing associations south of the border a massive migraine. It's also not going to help all those waiting for house or flat to rent at an affordable rate with some security of tenure. How on earth can housing associations operate properly when, as soon as they build some decent flats, they get snapped up? Thankfully, the new flats Calton spied being built on the edge of Dunfermline by Kingdom Housing Association, on one of his recent flights across the water, will not subject to the same barmy legislation. We need a good supply of quality, affordable rented accommodation for those who can't or don't want to buy. It seems that Scotland is leading the way in this respect, although more could have been done sooner to preserve our stock of rented housing.

They don't get it, do they?

Politicians just don't get it, do they? OK, so Alex Salmond is very magnanimously going to donate one of his salaries to charity if he succeeds in becoming an MP in addition to being an MSP next year. Big deal. The real problem with Alex and others like him, such as Cara Hilton (MSP and Fife Councillor), is that they are hogging two jobs when a lot of people can't even get one. They are also not giving the best service to the people they represent, who deserve an MSP who is not also an MP or a councillor. We want full-time elected representatives, not part-timers dividing their time between Holyrood and Westminster or Holyrood and a local council. If Salmond manages to get elected to Westminster he should immediately resign his Holyrood seat and it's high time Hilton resigned her position on Fife council. Her Labour colleague Alex Rowley did so as soon as he won his Cowdenbeath Holyrood seat. Perhaps Hilton is not as confident as Rowley about retaining her seat in 2016. Calton would have thought she was pretty safe but, it has to be said, Dunfermline has swung every which way but Tory in the last few Holyrood elections. Perhaps 2016 will be James Reekie's year. Oh hang on ... Calton has just spotted a pig flying over the other side of the Forth.

Maybe we just don't want to be in the EU

Extraordinary. In all the BBC coverage on UKIP's gains in the local elections in England and Wales which Calton heard today, not one word about the fact that people may be voting UKIP because they don't want to be in the EU. The Libdems even managed to put their total wipeout down to a mid-term backlash against a governing party! Er, no Nick - Calton thinks it is because you are the most pro-EU of all the main Westminster parties and you are just not in tune with the electorate. Now, which of the parties in Scotland is the most pro-EU apart from the Libdems (whose wipeout here is so predictable that it goes without saying)? The SNP. So, based on that, Calton is going to stick his feathery neck out and predict that, far from the SNP gaining an extra MEP, UKIP is going to get their first in Scotland. Unfortunately, so far it doesn't look like the main parties are prepared to learn anything from their cuffing at the hands of an anti-EU party. They continue to pursue their European dream heedless of the voice of voters or, in other words, situation normal. It reminds Calton of turkeys and Christmas or ostriches and sand. They are either going to get stuffed and roasted or, at the very least, their backsides kicked. Roll on May 2015! (Calton is assuming a No vote in September 2014.)

Running scared - the political elite

It seems to Calton that the main political parties are running scared of UKIP and with good reason. The trendy liberal political elite are completely out of touch with ordinary voters. They seem to have no idea what it is like to see your grown up children spending their days either in bed or on the computer playing games because they can't get a job. For many parents the fear of the empty nest has been replaced by anxiety over whether their offspring will ever manage to fledge and fly the nest. Many of these youngsters have been through further education, supported by their parents and yet they still can't find a job. For people like these, the news today that there was a 7% increase in the number of NI numbers issued to workers from overseas in 2013, compared with 2012, is not good news. The government can say all it likes about controlling immigration and bringing down the numbers but, as long as we remain in the EU, we have no control over immigration from the EU, which makes up the bulk of that 7% increase. UKIP are on course to win the EU elections, with the possibility of an MEP in Scotland, because they scratch an itch the other parties are not reaching. They are also constellating an anti-EU sentiment which is not able to be expressed in any other way. If the main political parties were really serious about spiking UKIP's guns, all they need to do is take us out of the EU, thus removing UKIP's raison d'etre in one fell swoop. Or at least offer a referendum. Instead, the old-boy establishment (including the BBC) has ganged up on the newcomer who is daring to challenge them and has resorted to playing the loony/racist card, conveniently ignoring the loonies/racists in their own woodpiles. It is a strategy almost certain to backfire. Voters are not that stupid.

The cost of keeping nothing secret

 The voters in South Dunfermline could be forgiven for wondering which are the parliamentary candidates and which are the council candidates, going by the election leaflets Calton's contact in Dunfermline has sent him. The would-be MSPs all seem to be more exercised by issues such as the proposed closure of a local school, local bus services and the state of the town centre, none of which they would have much control over if elected, than issues of national importance, such as the economy. The Green candidate is even concerned about the ability of Pars fans to buy their club! The Libdems are relying heavily on Willie Rennie's track record as MP for the area, conveniently forgetting that he was comprehensively booted out by Labour's Thomas Docherty in 2010. Calton suspects that Labour will do the same to the SNP this time round, especially with the latter's choice of a recycled Lothians list MSP as candidate to replace the disgraced Bill Walker.

Meanwhile the SNP seem to be increasingly sensitive to accusations that they have been in any way "economical with the truth", leading to journos and other bloggers/tweeters inventing new euphemisms for telling porkies. Calton's current favourite is "saying one thing in public and another behind closed doors". Whether or not the SNP are being honest with the people of Scotland is a matter of debate. What is clear is that a good number of people, including Johann Lamont and Calton, think that they are not being honest, which means that the SNP have a massive credibility problem. The onus is now on them to prove that they are being honest and are not hiding facts which are inconvenient to their arguments for independence. Otherwise they are going to struggle to convince people to vote yes next year. And spending £20k on legal action to keep the fact that they didn't have any EU advice secret doesn't help their cause.

The voters in Dunfermline deserve better

Surely it is more important that the various political parties, and the SNP in particular, tighten up on their selection procedures for election candidates to ensure that the electorate in Dunfermline don't get another Bill Walker, rather than discounting good candidates because they happen to be male. Apart from anything else, the people of Dunfermline are not daft enough to vote for someone just because she is a woman, as evidenced by the fact that Willie Rennie beat both Catherine Stihler (Labour) and Carrie Ruxton (Conservative) to win the corresponding Westminster seat in the 2006 by-election. There was a lot of feeling at the time that Ruxton in particular had been parachuted in, over local council leader Stuart Randall, at least partly because she was a woman, causing ructions within the local Tory party. Calton is all in favour of more female MPs and MSPs but positive discrimination and quotas don't work. Candidates have to be selected on their merits. Anything else is unfair on voters.

Taking the heat out of the independence debate

Calton would like to apologise for the lack of posts recently but it has just been too hot to blog. Summer has finally arrived. The result of the Donside by-election was disappointing, not so much because the SNP managed to hold on to the seat - no surprise there - but because the four 'main parties' took the top four slots. An upset by one of the smaller parties would have been nice. As it is, the result gives the BBC the justification to carry on largely ignoring minority parties, which is a pity.

Bill Clinton has brought some much-needed words of wisdom to the independence debate while speaking at the Scottish Business Awards in Edinburgh. Hopefully his warnings will cool off the intemperate behaviour which has unfortunately characterised the debate so far, to the detriment of Scotland's future, whichever way the vote goes. His call for respect by both sides is particularly pertinent.

More power to the people

Calton fully supports the idea of the island councils having more control over their own resources - in fact, he supports the idea of all councils having more control over their own resources - but it ain't going to happen under the SNP. This is the party which has imposed the council tax freeze - popular with voters but which hamstrings democratically elected councils from making their own decisions about local tax and spending. This is the party which wants full control of fiscal policy for Scotland but is not willing to give the same control to Scottish councils. This is the party which calls in council planning decisions on windfarms and overrules them. This is the party of centralised, central-belt size fits all, government. What is the point of trying to find ways to boost the turnout at local government elections when those elected do not have any real power? If the Scottish Government stopped interfering with councils we might see more people interested in who they vote into local government, because it would have a direct impact on their daily lives. It's called accountability.

Brian's boring debate

The Scottish Parliament was designed to give small parties a chance of being represented. Unfortunately someone forgot to tell the BBC, which only invited what it saw as the "four main parties" on to the panel of the hustings for the Donside by-election held yesterday under the banner of Brian's Big Debate. Really, Calton would have thought that an experienced political journalist like Taylor should have known better. The excuse was that a "main party" was one that currently had seats in Holyrood. What happened to the Green candidate in that case? And, given that the Libdems are trailing UKIP in the polls, can we really continue to treat them as a "main party"? It's time that the SNP, Labour, Conservatives and Libdems were given a good old kick up the backside - Calton is tired of the same old arguments being trotted out again and again and he is glad to hear that Nigel Farage is planning another trip to Scotland. Yes, sometimes Farage is inexcusably rude but he is also a breath of fresh air compared to the politically-correct, lily-livered liberals and socialists who currently comprise a fair number of our elected representatives. Here's hoping UKIP kick at least one of the "main parties" into touch in Donside.

So predictable - unlike the Donside by-election

Is it any surprise that there is growing support for the idea that we should leave the EU when the European Council, backed by the European Parliament, has just agreed the European Commission's request for an extra £6.2bn to be added to the budget, in spite of Cameron talking tough a few weeks ago. Calton doesn't like to say "I told you so" but ... it was entirely predictable that this would happen, and it completely knocks the legs out from under the Prime Minister's idea that he can renegotiate our position within the EU. We just don't have that much clout. However, it is good to see that one of the three main parties (four in Scotland) is now willing to give the British people a say regarding our continued membership of the EU. Labour and the Libdems are going to look increasingly out of touch with the electorate if they continue to refuse to back an in-out referendum on the EU, especially if, as seems likely, UKIP continue to make gains in elections. The Aberdeen Donside by-election will be an interesting indicator of UKIP's support in Scotland, with the announcement of Otto Inglis as their candidate. (Inglis previously contested Dunfermline and West Fife in the last Westminster election.) Calton awaits the outcome, which is anything but predictable, with interest. (And perhaps, given UKIP's recent share of the vote down south, he should be talking of four main parties, five in Scotland?)

Hoping for a landslide

Whether or not you agree with capping banker's bonuses, it is very worrying that the UK is not in control of the decision, which is being forced through by a majority vote in the EU. This is a decision which should be made in Westminster, not Brussels. No other European nation has a financial centre to compare with London. It is a major driver of our economy and needs to be protected by our parliament. George Osborne is doing his best but the real problem is our continued membership of the EU, which is not in our best interests. What is it going to take for our politicians to realise this? A landslide victory for UKIP in next year's European Parliament elections? Here's hoping!

Common sense for the common man

Knee-jerk reactions are never a good idea but one very good definition of stupidity is 'doing the same thing and expecting a different result'. Another very good definition of stupidity is thinking that winning Eastleigh on just 32% of the vote vindicates the Libdems going into coalition with the Tories and gives them more muscle in negotiations with their bedfellows. Dream on Nick. Your party only retained the seat because the anti-EU, keep-marriage-as-it-is vote was split between UKIP and the Tories. Since Dave seems determined to hang on to what he sees as the 'common ground' (does he even know the meaning of the word 'common'?) and UKIP are now on a roll with their 'common-sense' policies, we can hopefully look forward to right-of-centre voters abandoning the good ship Conservative next time and the country's first UKIP MP. Not that Calton agrees with all UKIP's policies but Nigel Farage is quite right when he says, speaking of the main three parties, that "you can't put a cigarette paper between them on policy". They are also completely out of touch with the common man. Time for a shake-up.

PC gone mad at Strathclyde HQ

Interesting that in all the hand-wringing, analyses and excuses no-one is mentioning the fact that over half the voters in Eastleigh chose candidates who are opposed to same-sex marriage. Ditto the EU. Perhaps if Conservative candidate Maria Hutchings had been able to be more vocal about her Euro-scepticism and support for traditional marriage she might not have been pushed into third place by UKIP. Unfortunately it is all too easy for Cameron to dismiss this as a 'protest vote' and a typical mid-term by-election result. Calton is wondering what his excuse will be in 2015.

In another, related, vein, it has come to Calton's attention that the Crazy Rev has been sacked as Chaplain to Strathclyde Police for expressing support for traditional marriage on his personal blog. What on earth did the Force expect? He's a Minister of the Gospel for God's sake! This is political correctness gone mad with a vengeance. Are they also going to sack all the Roman Catholic chaplains? And the Moslem ones, if they have any? Does the spiritual health and comfort of Roman Catholic or Evangelical Christian or Moslem coppers not matter any more? And whatever happened to freedom of speech? This is a very worrying development, especially for bloggers. Where will it end?

A great opportunity

If marriage can be bad for your political career, divorce is far worse, as Chris Huhne has found to his cost. Speeding on the motorway has proved to be a fast-track to ignominy as the MP pled guilty today to a charge of perverting the course of justice. Now we have the interesting prospect of a by-election in a marginal seat with the coalition partners at each other's throats (no change there then) and the possibility of Nigel Farage sneaking past them both to become UKIP's first MP. What fun that would be! The Eastleigh voters will have the choice of EU Referendum (Cons), Stay in Europe (Libdem), Can't decide whether or not to have an EU Referendum (Lab) and Get out Now (UKIP). If they want to stay in the EU but don't want same-sex marriage they will be a bit stuck as UKIP is the only party which supports keeping marriage as it is. Still - it's a great opportunity to tell the Government what they think on both topics. Calton is positively green with envy.

More sour grapes?

Oh dear. It doesn't look like the stushie between the independents and the parties in Highland Council is going to settle down anytime soon. The latest row is over appointments to outside bodies. Several experienced independents have been passed over and they are not happy. It does seem as if the political parties have put out a 3-line whip on the vote. Calton is just wondering what the voters in the Highlands are making of all this since none of them voted for the coalition which they now have. That's the trouble with the Single Transferable Vote method of electing councillors. It very rarely produces a party with an outright majority. Some would say that's a good thing, however four years of warfare between the independents and the political parties is not going to be good for the Highlands.