An hour in the sun

The SNP got their majority in Holyrood, they got their referendum, they lost it and they are now showing themselves to be constitutionally incapable of accepting the result. Alex Salmond couldn't do his speech accepting defeat without inserting the words "at this stage" and now his probable successor Nicola Sturgeon, while ruling out Eck's more fanciful idea of independence without a referendum, is talking about another referendum some point in the probably not too distant future if it's in the SNP manifesto and they get another majority. Calton would have thought that that was one sure way of getting kicked out of Holyrood but the DFM's chutzpah is such that she may well go for it. One can only hope......

Meanwhile the SNP leadership non-contest is looking very like the succession of Gordon Brown to the Labour Party leadership and post of Prime Minister after years in Tony Blair's shadow and we all know what happened then. Nicola should enjoy her hour in the sun because Calton predicts that it won't last long.

It's crystal clear

It is now crystal clear what voting yes in the independence referendum really means, in spite of all the assertions to the contrary. It means a return to the banking system of the 1700s, with no central bank and no bank bailouts. The Adam Smith Institute seems to think that this would encourage banks to be more responsible. Sounds a bit like putting a fox in charge of the hen house to Calton. Would you really trust a bank with your hard-earned savings in those circumstances? They may tell you that they have enough English banknotes in the vault to guarantee the Scottish notes they are printing but could you believe them? Would you? Meanwhile the SNP continue to cling to the idea that they will get a currency union with rUK in the event of a yes vote, while rumours circulate on twitter that today was possibly Alex Salmond's last FMQs. Oh, that it were true! Calton would jump for joy.

Better together

Calton would like to apologise to his regular readers (if he still has any) for the lack of posts over the summer. The truth is, he is suffering from chronic referendum fatigue. It has all gone on far too long and the only thing worse is the prospect of another couple of years of haggling between Holyrood and Westminster if the result is yes. A good reason to vote no if ever there was one, so that our parliaments can get back to dealing with more important issues, such as the rise of Islamic terrorism at home and abroad. The Middle East, which has always had the potential to be a tinder-box for wider conflict, is more unstable now than it has ever been, according to Jeremy Bowen, the BBC's Middle East reporter, and we are fools to think that it won't affect us. It seems petty for us to be arguing over how much oil is left in the North Sea and who it belongs to when the major oil-producing area of the world looks set to ignite in one massive conflagration. This is not a time to be going our separate ways - it is a time to unite against the killers of Lee Rigby and James Foley, to take a stand against the Islamic State and their murderous persecution of non-Moslems. We helped create a power vacuum in Iraq when we removed Saddam Hussein. We can't now walk away from the results. How can we expect Shia and Sunni to work together in Iraq when Scotland won't work with England? It's time the United Kingdom showed the world how distinctive, different nations can remain united whilst retaining their separate identities. We really are better together.

Lies, evasion and FMQs

First Minister's Questions are a total affront to democracy. How is it that Alex Salmond is allowed to get away with not answering the question? Is it because the Presiding Officer is ex-SNP? Was it really a good idea to select a PO from the governing party, against the usual precedent? Or is the position basically toothless? Marwick is quick enough to jump on anyone accusing the FM of telling lies but doesn't seem to be able to make him tell the truth. Evasion, evasion, evasion was the order of the day yesterday. Well, if the leaders of the opposition parties at Holyrood can't get Salmond to spit out the startup costs of an independent Scotland, maybe a petition from the people will have some effect. Or maybe not. If the latter, you know the answer - vote NO. After all, would you buy a car without knowing the cost, and not just the cost to buy it but the cost to run it? Calton thought not and yet that is precisely what the Yes Campaign are expecting us to do. Their £1000 bonanza is based on increased immigration and increased productivity in an independent Scotland but where are these jobs going to come from? Thin air? We can't manage to employ all our people at the moment, particularly our young people, and so, unless all the immigrants Salmond wants to welcome here come with enough capital to start businesses and employ Scots, Calton just can't see increased productivity happening. It's a mirage. As is the idea that, on the 19th September, Scots will "come together" regardless of the outcome of the referendum. Dream on Tricia.

Democracy - SNP style

It seems that, in the SNP's eyes, democracy only applies to Scotland. They are quite happy to ride roughshod over the fact that voters in the rest of the UK may not want a currency union with Scotland if we become independent and voters in other EU countries may not want us to be an EU member, or, if we do become a member they may wish to insist that we do so on the basis of joining the Euro. They are also quite happy to ignore the wishes of the Scottish people when it suits them and to forget that they did not get a majority of the votes at the last election, even although they got a slim majority in Holyrood. However, as soon as someone threatens the outcome of the independence referendum by injecting a few facts into the argument, it is an "affront to democracy". Either that or it is "bullying". Instead of accepting that they cannot force other countries to do their will, and working within the parameters which that creates, the SNP continue to insist that everything goes their way, thus demonstrating that their vision of an independent Scotland is built on sand. It is a fantasy, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. They cannot convince the people of Scotland on the basis of facts and so they are appealing to baser instincts - the dislike of being told what to do. How pathetic. The sad thing is that some Scots will fall for it.

SNP - listening for once

Calton is pleased to see that automatic early release is to be scrapped for violent/sexual offenders in Scotland. About time too. Nice to see the SNP actually listening to the concerns of the electorate for once. It would be even better if they scrapped the same-sex marriage bill, now that over 50,000 people have signed Scotland for Marriage's petition against it. That's more than the combined membership of all political parties in Scotland. Who said single-issue politics was dead?

As to the rest of the rather uninspiring raft of legislation introduced today: Calton is in favour of scrapping the right to buy for council tenants. It should never have been introduced in the first place. He also hopes that changes to licensing of scrap metal merchants will bring them into line with England and Wales, thus making Scotland less of a safe haven for metal thieves. And he dearly wishes that Alex Salmond would stop blaming Westminster at every opportunity. It's getting boring. And we still have more than a year to go!

It's not worth it

It had to happen - a man has been jailed for stabbing two people in an argument over the independence referendum. So much for 'positive debate' - positively lethal debate more like. He's just lucky no-one was killed and his wife still wants him back. She'll have to wait a few months since he's been jailed for over a year. Calton recognises that the whole independence issue generates strong feelings but resorting to violence over it is not good. Is this really the image of Scotland we want to project to the world? And is this not the logical end-result of the violent and aggressive comments which some people seem to think acceptable to use on the internet when "discussing" independence? Calton's concern is that, no matter which way the vote goes in 2014, there will be people who will not accept it and some of them may think that violence is the way to achieve their aims. We already have a problem with sectarian violence in parts of Scotland. Post-2014 we could have a problem with nationalist/unionist sectarianism. If this is to be avoided, it is incumbent upon us all to conduct the debate with respect and in a peaceful manner. The alternative is too awful to contemplate.

Alex oils out of the tricky questions

If Calton remembers rightly, it was not so long ago that Nicola Sturgeon was calling for positive debate on the independence referendum. She must have forgotten to tell Alex Salmond, who spent a large part of his slot on BBC Radio Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme this morning slagging off Westminster. The man really doesn't do himself, or us, any favours. One minute he's saying that we don't really need the oil revenues - they are just a nice wee extra - and the next minute he's talking about squeezing every last drop of oil and gas from Scotland's waters, or so it seems. We'll certainly need every last drop if we're to see anything like the figure of £300k for every man, woman and child in Scotland. When pressed on when we would start saving into an oil fund, post-independence, the First Minister would not be drawn, presumably because he knows that, although it sounds like a good idea, it is not without its problems, and he would not comment at all on the issue of fracking. What Calton really wants to know is why we are covering our mountains with windfarms when there is still lots of oil and gas out there which the Scottish Government has every intention of using to the max?

Another step towards the Scottish Autumn

It's not surprising that the Scottish Government are bringing forward a bill on same-sex marriage before the results of their consultation on it have been published. These government consultations are looking increasingly like irrelevant nods to public opinion by a party which has no intention of listening to the electorate. All Alex Salmond's promises about protecting the rights and freedoms of those who disagree with gay marriage are only so much hot air - the only ones who will be protected, it seems, are ministers or denominations who do not want to conduct the ceremonies. There does not seem to be any protection for teachers, registrars, foster carers and would-be adopters, social workers, marriage guidance counsellors and so on and so on. If the bill is passed, it will be a huge step backwards for freedom of conscience in Scotland and a big step towards the Scottish Autumn. The fact that the SNP are trying to introduce it before the independence referendum shows some desperation on their part - they have presumably come under intense pressure from the gay lobby to do so. Not content with sowing division in Scotland with their nationalist policies, the SNP are now set to tear the nation apart over gay marriage. Their legacy is already apparent; their fate will not be long in coming.

Jam tomorrow - naturally

Recent polls have shown a drop in support for the Yes campaign so what does Nicola Sturgeon do? Invents a new phrase - "natural majority". She defines this as the number of people who will vote for independence if the SNP can persuade them that it opens the door to a wealthier and fairer country. Now, leaving aside the fact that the results of SNP's own poll show that 43% of those polled would still vote No even if persuaded that an independent Scotland would be wealthier and fairer, the little 'if' in Sturgeon's definiton of 'natural' is a big one. A very big one. Not one that will go away just by making assertions. If the Yes Campaign are to have any chance of winning a majority, natural or otherwise, they need to prove some hard facts, like exactly how much oil we are going to have and what it is going to be worth. They need to tell us how we are going to be a fairer country and what exactly that will mean in terms of taxes. Better childcare provision and better care for the elderly costs money. We need to know where that money will come from in an independent Scotland. It's all very well the SNP promising jam tomorrow if we vote Yes but it is now becoming obvious that the council tax freeze introduced by the Scottish Government is resulting in visible cutbacks in services and, in the NHS, waiting times in A&E have increased dramatically. The SNP's attempts to buy votes are starting to unravel so why should we believe them when they say that an independent Scotland will be wealthier and fairer? Hopefully the majority of Scots will be canny enough to realise that you don't get something for nothing.

Pensions - no laughing matter

It is a well known fact that we are not saving enough towards our retirement in this country, however it is a miracle that anyone is bothering to save for it at all, given all the current uncertainty surrounding pensions. First, we had the Westminster Government moving the goalposts (and Calton is still trying to work out exactly how many years National Insurance contributions he has) and now we have the possibility that a yes vote in the independence referendum will throw another huge spanner in the works for Scots. Does anybody really believe the SNP's line that it will all be alright on the night? Not Calton. He wants to see the figures, especially since part of his retirement income is going to come from a UK-wide company pension scheme. EU insistence that cross-border schemes be fully funded is a) going to prove a major headache if Scotland becomes independent and b) could scupper a large number of company pension schemes and, indeed, companies, not to mention the pension expectations of their employees. At the risk of being branded a clown by Ken Clarke (pot? kettle?) Calton sees this as yet another good reason for us to leave the EU (and stay in the UK).

Heading for the rocks

It really doesn't matter who is right about Scotland's share of the UK's debt because, if we become independent and the SNP remain in power, however low our debt starts out, it will soon go through the roof thanks to the prolific spending policies of the SNP and Scotland's ageing (and unhealthy) population. The worrying thing is that we are going to have to go into the independence referendum not knowing how the UK's debt is going to be divvied up, and Calton, for one, does not have the same confidence as the Deputy First Minister in the strength of Scotland's position. The same goes for the allocation of UK oil and gas revenues. What is clear is that Scotland has benefited over the years from a greater spend per head than the rest of the UK, partly in recognition of the contribution from her oil and gas to the overall UK economy. This is something which does not appear to figure in Sturgeon's calculations and, if Sturgeon thinks that the UK Government has mismanaged the economy over the last 30 years, she should remember that 13 of those years were under the 'spend, spend, spend' Labour Government of Gordon Brown's Chancellorship and Premiership. Even the Labour Party now agree that cuts need to be made but the good ship SNP is still steaming full ahead on the same disastrous course as the Great Broon - straight for the rocks.

More facts, less rhetoric

If Nicola Sturgeon wants to build confidence in Scotland's ability to go it alone, she needs to do so on the foundation of facts, not rhetoric. Information, not assertion. Reality, not spin. Otherwise it's just so much hot air and, as we have already seen, that doesn't go far. Calton has really struggled to summon up the enthusiasm to blog about the SNP's spring conference because it just seems like the same old, same old stuff. They can't win on rational argument so they have to appeal to the emotions. Of course Scotland could go it alone - very few people who are planning to vote NO think that it can't. They just think it would be better not to. Small is not always beautiful. The SNP are also not helping their cause by acting like mini-dictators - Calton was actually an 'undecided' with regard to independence until the SNP started throwing their weight around and ignoring the voters who put them in power, like the people who turned up to hand a petition against windfarms in to the SNP conference. Alex Salmond refused to meet them. If Scotland votes NO in 2014 the SNP have only themselves to blame.

Heading for the cliff

Enough already. Just when we thought that EU leaders had agreed a budget, the EU Parliament wants to  renegotiate it. What are the chances of it being agreed by the end of the year, in order to stop a funding shortfall? Slim to none, in Calton's book. Looks like the MEPs are suffering from fiscal cliff envy - anything the US can do, Europe can do better. We should never have signed the Lisbon Treaty, which is what gave the EU Parliament the power to throw a spanner in the works. Bad idea. It is not inconceivable that all David Cameron's efforts to impose some sort of restraint on EU spending will be overturned by free-spending, anti-austerity MEPs as they rush, lemming-like, towards the cliff. Bring on the EU referendum Dave!

Keep politics out of schools

Calton is not in favour of extending the voting franchise to 16 and 17 year-olds for the independence referendum. Yes, some of them may well be mature enough to understand the issues and make a reasoned decision, but many of them will struggle to understand the financial and constitutional arguments and, in the absence of such understanding, will be swayed by peer pressure, emotionalism and how their parents vote. Calton is particularly concerned at the inevitable politicisation of schools if pupils become eligible to vote. At the moment, many schools hold mock debates around the time of elections, which is fine and teaches young people about the way a democracy works, but introducing real politics into the school environment could be a powder-keg. There are also implications involved in adding under-18s to the voters register - Calton would like to know how much it is going to cost local authorities to do this and where the money is going to come from? The SNP are obviously hoping that bringing in this legislation will support their cause. For the Libdems and Labour to be supporting it is something akin to turkeys voting for Christmas.

One big no-no

The number of people employed in Scotland has just gone down, we have a huge youth unemployment issue, we have a lack of affordable homes and we are about to see a large number of people trying to downsize to avoid a housing benefit cut due to under-occupancy but the SNP is getting ready to welcome a potentially huge influx of Romanians and Bulgarians with open arms and they don't seem to have any contingency plans to cope if, as seems very likely, the numbers exceed even the most liberal estimate. If any further evidence was needed to prove that our Government is stark, staring mad, this is it. OK, so we can probably house them in all the larger council houses vacated by Scots who can't pay for them any more, but what about schools, medical practices, dentists etc, etc, etc? And what about all the Scots who find they can't get a job because they are all taken by Eastern Europeans? What are they supposed to do? This is not just a few skilled immigrants, which we need, or some temporary unskilled immigrants doing menial agricultural work which we don't want to do. We could be talking millions of people in the space of a few months and we have absolutely no control over it while we remain part of the EU. One very good reason to vote NO to independence and NO to the EU.

A great opportunity

If marriage can be bad for your political career, divorce is far worse, as Chris Huhne has found to his cost. Speeding on the motorway has proved to be a fast-track to ignominy as the MP pled guilty today to a charge of perverting the course of justice. Now we have the interesting prospect of a by-election in a marginal seat with the coalition partners at each other's throats (no change there then) and the possibility of Nigel Farage sneaking past them both to become UKIP's first MP. What fun that would be! The Eastleigh voters will have the choice of EU Referendum (Cons), Stay in Europe (Libdem), Can't decide whether or not to have an EU Referendum (Lab) and Get out Now (UKIP). If they want to stay in the EU but don't want same-sex marriage they will be a bit stuck as UKIP is the only party which supports keeping marriage as it is. Still - it's a great opportunity to tell the Government what they think on both topics. Calton is positively green with envy.

Wanted - something to chew on

It is a truth, universally acknowledged, that a sea eagle in possession of a good set of claws must be in want of a prey. Sadly, Calton is still in want, the SNP having decided to do the sensible thing and agree with the Electoral Commission. The Deputy First Minister's political nous has obviously not totally deserted her. At least now we can all get on with the debate, spurred on by the knowledge that many of those questioned by the Electoral Commission wanted to know exactly what would happen after a yes or a no vote. Don't we all. Particularly with regard to EU membership. Hopefully it will not be long before Calton has something substantial he can chew on.

It's all in the definition

It was a bit ambitious to expect the Deputy First Minister to agree in advance with the Electoral Commission's findings on the referendum question but full marks to Labour's Patricia Ferguson for trying. It all hinges now on Nicola Sturgeon's definition of a "very good reason". Calton would venture to say that "not sufficiently biased towards independence" is not a very good reason to ignore the EC's recommendations. The real question is, given the SNP's (slender) majority, will any SNP MSP have the backbone to vote against the Government if it tries to make a fool of itself by pushing through a leading referendum question? Or will they all, like lemmings, follow their leaders over the cliff?

Queen of chutzpah

Nicola Sturgeon's chutzpah certainly knows no bounds as she uses the Royal 'we' repeatedly in her letter to European Foreign Ministers this week. Just who does she think she is speaking for when she says "we have no intention of leaving the European Union"? Not Calton, who has every intention of leaving the EU if he can possibly manage it. Not the Scottish people either, given that they have not had the chance to say one way or the other and will not get the chance under the SNP. Now that there is a possibility of an in-out EU referendum in the UK (or rUK), and given that Scotland exports four times as much to the rUK as it does to the EU, it makes far more sense for Scotland to remain part of the UK, either in or out of the EU, than it does for an independent Scotland to tie itself to the EU and risk its biggest market leaving it. Sturgeon and her SNP cohorts may have been blinded to the facts by nationalistic fervour but most Scots know which side their bread is buttered on, as confirmed by the recent drop in support for independence. The Deputy First Minister's letter to the EU Ministers looks like the increasingly desperate tactics of someone who has been handed a poisoned chalice by the First Minister and knows it. Calton could almost feel sorry for her. Almost.