Is Nicola Sturgeon good for the SNP?

In times gone by, Queen of the SNP Nicola Sturgeon could have expected standing ovations and lots of opportunities for selfies and self-promotion at the SNP's annual conference. Not this year. 2020 continued its mean girls reputation by serving up to the First Minister a platter of hostile media interviews, a critical front-page article by an SNP MP in The Times and her name trending on twitter for all the wrong reasons. Andrew Marr, in an interview which is unlikely to be forgotten even by a woman who seems to have made forgetfulness a habit recently, told her that "there is a gap between how you present yourself, which you do very well, and what is actually going on in Scotland". One of the most important manifestations of this gap is the way in which Sturgeon has managed to make everyone think that she's done a good job of leading the SNP. So let's look at that.

Nicola Sturgeon inherited a party with a majority in Holyrood, which had been achieved by her predecessor Alex Salmond in 2011 after he successfully ran a minority administration from 2007-2011. Sturgeon lost that majority in 2016 and now presides over another minority government which is not doing nearly as well as the first one. Granted, the number of SNP MPs at Westminster has increased since she took over, however the stunning 2015 result was mainly due to a backlash against the 2014 referendum result and would have happened regardless of who was leader of the party. The SNP lost a lot of MPs in 2017 and has still not got back to the 2015 high water mark in spite of an improved performance in 2019. A similar thing has happened with party membership which increased dramatically in 2014-5 but has recently fallen back again.

Under the leadership of Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell the SNP introduced rules banning criticism of the leadership or any party member or policy. This gave them an iron grip on the party which could only last for so long and is now spectacularly breaking down over the issue of transgender rights. Joanna Cherry has publicly criticised Sturgeon's control as being unhealthy for the party while simultaneously asking that the rule banning criticism be used to protect her from the torrent of abuse she has been receiving from party members. Nicola's response to this today has been rather lukewarm. Calton is not surprised - you only get la Sturgeon's support if you agree with her anti-feminist policies.

Finally, on the real acid test of an SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon has failed spectacularly because, although she's been promising another independence referendum since the Brexit vote of 2016, she has failed to deliver one and shows no sign of doing so any time soon, regardless of what (vague) promises she has given this weekend. She is also failing when it comes to governing Scotland well (which Salmond did from 2007-2011) and building support for independence. It's not enough to have a referendum - the SNP members want to win it and that is in no way guaranteed at the moment. The settled 60% in favour of independence which Nicola very sensibly wanted to see before calling indyref2 has never materialised. Support has been 55% at most. 

Nicola Sturgeon is very good at presenting herself. She's managed to fool at least some people into thinking that she's handled the Covid crisis well, although the facts say otherwise. However she is not good at managing her party or governing the country or persuading No voters to change to Yes. Self-promotion is all she's good at. Nicola is no Boudicca - but will the rank and file in the SNP realise that before it's too late? Hopefully not.

Cherchez La Femme

The more the sorry Salmond affair drags on, the more Calton becomes convinced that the former First Minister was right - there was a conspiracy against him instigated by his successor. You don't have to look far in this whodunnit to find the femme fatale. Nicola Sturgeon had both the means (his admittedly poor behaviour) and the motive (his declared intention to return to Scottish politics) to stick the knife into Alex Salmond and #metoo gave her the ideal opportunity. She has rubbished any suggestion of conspiracy, saying that she has nothing to hide and would cooperate fully with the current inquiry however court action has been raised to prevent publication of part of a conversation between Sturgeon and a senior civil servant about Salmond. The Scottish Government has also failed to meet a deadline to provide its legal advice to the inquiry and is treating a parliamentary vote on the same with contempt.

What really stinks about this whole thing is the way in which senior women in the SNP and the Scottish Government seem to have been happy to put up with Salmond's behaviour when it suited them, in the run-up to the 2014 independence referendum for example, but then cynically used the #metoo movement as a vehicle to prevent Salmond making a come-back. That is not the action of committed feminists. Women suffer daily from the actions of sleazy guys in positions of power and are entitled to have their complaints treated with respect and investigated properly, not used in some internecine party war, which, in Calton's opinion, seems to have happened in this case.

Alex Salmond won a court case against the Scottish Government over their handling of the complaints against him and he was aquitted of all criminal wrongdoing at his trial. He is now out for revenge against his successor. Nicola Sturgeon has said that perhaps he is angry with her because she refused to collude with him in covering up his behaviour. Calton wonders if perhaps Alex had good reason to expect collusion from Nicola based on her previous attitude to his actions and was disappointed to find that her attitude had changed. Or perhaps his anger stems from being put through months of hell and a court case. Hopefully we will find out when the man himself appears in front of the Holyrood committee. Calton doesn't hold out much hope of the committee getting anything out of the First Minister, except a plea for our sympathy as a wronged woman.

A Rainbow of Rosettes

Calton can remember the early years of the Scottish Parliament when the ballot paper for the second or list vote was as long as his arm. It was called the Rainbow Parliament due to the many party colours - including the Senior Citizen's Unity Party and the Socialist Party in addition to the current five parties. In 2007 we also had the Scottish Christian Party, the Smoking in Pubs Party, the Christian People's Alliance and Solidarity putting up list candidates. Happy days! Unfortunately that was the year that saw all the smaller parties wiped out and the first SNP government elected. It's been all downhill since then.

Until now. Now we have the iron discipline of the SNP breaking down, spawning new independence parties such as Action for Independence, Independence for Scotland and Scotland's Independence Referendum Party. We also, finally, have a credible pushback against the SNP led by George Galloway and the Alliance for Unity party. The Smoking in Pubs Party has expired in the face of the smoking ban and the SCUP seems to have retired however the Scottish Socialists are alive and kicking - back against Labour it seems, especially since the recent suspension of one J Corbyn.

The Scottish Christian Party still pops up from time to time at by-elections - most recently to split the religious vote with newcomer the Scottish Family Party in Ian Blackford's constituency in the 2019 general election. The latter doesn't have a position on independence so that might appeal to the few people in the country still sitting on the fence when it comes to Scotland in or out of the UK. Alternatively, if Richard Leonard gives in to pressure and changes his opposition to a second independence referendum, they could always vote Scottish Labour.

Whatever your political views, more choice on the second ballot paper has to be a good thing, unless you want a one-party state run by mini-dictator Nicola Sturgeon and her husband. Calton will be voting for Alliance for Unity to stop that eventuality.